HOUSING MARKET MODELLING PROGRAM

Housing Market Modelling Program’s vision is to be a fully-pledged housing research program in Australia:

• To develop cutting-edge analytical models to enhance evidence-based decisioning for home buyers, investors, developers, property service providers and policy makers
• To develop proprietary analytics solutions to rank 15,000 suburbs across Australia: identifying top 1% suburbs across Australia for facts-based property investment
• To provide expert advisory service in the domain of the Australian housing market analytics to individual and institutional investors, councils, governments and corporate clients
• To develop research capabilities to tackle the emerging challenges in the Australian housing market

RESEARCH PRIORITIES

Housing market analytics and modelling

• Location ratings: develop a cutting-edge method to rate suburbs, LGAs and cities according to the specific neighbourhood level data.
• Market cycle analytics: taking into account a property market’s specific characteristics such as volatility, long and short memory growth rates, we develop a proprietary algorithm to detect the current market phase (Hot, Cold or Balanced) to enable sophisticated investors and home buyers to enter or exit the market strategically.
• Housing market monitoring system: track the trends of key fundamentals that drive housing supply and demand; build analytical models to forecast the future trends.
• Building a microsimulation model for policy analysis: this modelling approach will take into account the heterogeneity of market stakeholders’ behaviours (i.e. buyers, sellers, banks, governments) and their interactions with properties over their lifetime. The model can be used to assess the impact of policy scenarios or macroeconomic changes on the market outcomes.
• Housing affordability: sustained growth in housing prices has worsen housing affordability for first home buyers, what policies at local and national levels can be deployed to improve home ownership?
• The long term housing price trends and forecasting of capital city markets in Australia: an empirical analysis.

Demographics research: How the underlying demographics changes will shape the housing demand in the future?

• Population and demographics changes: research into the effect of population and demographics changes such as ageing population and immigration on the demand for housing.
• Household count and size: how the building industry will plan for the projected housing demand, taking into account the demographics changes including ageing population and increasing marriage age?
• Inter-state and inter-region migration: identify the patterns and dynamics of population mobility to assess the total housing demand.

About Dr. Kevin Hoang

Dr. Kevin Hoang is a senior economist with extensive working experience in public, industry and academic settings in Australia and Asia. Currently, Dr. Hoang is a senior economist and the Managing Director of HousingMarketAustralia.com, dedicated to develop cutting-edge analytical models in housing market analysis to empower evidence-based decision making for home buyers, investors, developers and property service providers. Dr. Hoang earned a Ph.D in economics from the University of New South Wales in 2012 and was a Japan-IMF scholar in 2004-2006.

Skills and specialties:

1. In-depth knowledge about the Australian property market, including national, capital cities, and major regions, supported by research and data.

2. Solution and results-driven, successfully developed a range of analytical frameworks to monitor the trends in the Australian property market to identify new growth locations.

3. Solid technical foundation with a Ph.D. in economics and econometrics with strong quantitative and analytical skills.

4. Active research economist and frequent speaker on housing market topics at reputable international conferences, including the Economics Society of Australia, the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Conference on Urbanization, and the Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES) conference.

5. Regular contributor on housing market issues for professional organisations such as the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA). Link: https://www.pipa.asn.au/pipa-national-market-update-october-2023/.

6. Top columnist on housing issues in Vietnam, with 40 million readers per month on vnexpress.net. Link: https://vnexpress.net/tac-gia/hoang-van-phuong-1689.html.